Track Profile Analysis points to the potential uniqueness of each racing surface at both DMR and SAR. It determines which OptixPLOT run styles are being favored.
Please remember that Track Profile Analysis is only one part of pace analysis. Each race will have its own unique pace dynamic that should be interpreted in the context of the track profile.
Here are the preliminary results of our PLOT analysis relating shape sizes to win percentages. Our initial study is 6F dirt sprints for all our tracks over the past 16 months.
Our conclusion is that Size matters. We will provide more information on this topic as we further our analysis.
- Hard to Interpret – Data might be incomplete, i.e First Time Starters or Horses with Foreign form. Could also be attributed to field changing distances, lacking recency or trying a new surface for the first time.
- Legit/Vulnerable Favorite – OptixPLOT output is either positive or negative on the post time favorite, i.e. pace flow, PLOT/run style mismatch or unfavorable Quadrant/Shape for track/surface/distance.
- Stalk/Pounce – No dominant speed or lone closer type, the stalk and pounce will generally be a medium or large square in close proximity to the front-runners.
- Off/On Pace Flow – Pace flow favors a particular run style. An off pace flow will be a circle crowded Quadrant 1 with large squares in Quadrants 2 and Quadrant 4. A relatively light Quadrant 1 will reflect a pace flow advantage in favor of early pace types.